The Sea Guardian Deal

The POTUS Joe Biden’s pet ‘Project Ukraine’ is faltering badly. According to former United States Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter, Biden is panicking because of massive destruction of Western military equipment in Ukraine.

Ritter believes the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) counteroffensive is only a political gesture, ahead of the NATO Summit in July. In April, Ritter had estimated the permanent loss of 300,000 soldiers in the UAF. That number would have gone up now.

That’s why the US wants to expand NATO more, and has established NATO Plus 5, in which it wants to add India. Biden is walking on thin ice but wants to increase the intensity of the Ukraine war in a bid to get re-elected.

The 'Make in India' initiative was launched in September 2014 as part of India's renewed focus on manufacturing. On April 1, 2022, the Press Information Bureau release stated that in accordance with the policy of Government of India for “Make in India” and the mandate given in “Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan”, “the proposals which were accorded Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) under Buy (Global) category of Capital Acquisition in the past have been reviewed as per DAP-2020 and the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved cancellation/closure of AoN for 09 such proposals worth Rs. 46,695 crore.

The details of service-wise platforms cannot be shared in the interest of national security”. More such lists have been issued since then. The latest list issued on May 15, 2023 bans 928 items from imports, having import substitution value of Rs 7.15 billion (approx $86 million).

The Chinese invasion in Eastern Ladakh during April-May 2020, and the Ukraine War woke up our policy makers although the need for armed drones was felt even before.

However, the DRDO’s snail-paced development forced India to import drones. Notably, the first flight of DRDO’s ‘Rustom’ was 14 years ago, in 2009. Finally a joint India-Israel venture emerged under ‘Make in India’, Adani Defence & Aerospace and Israel’s Elbit Systems for manufacturing armed drones.

On December 14, 2018, the 50,000 sq ft Adani Elbit Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Complex was inaugurated in Telangana for manufacturing complete carbon composite aero-structures for Hermes 900, followed by Hermes 450, catering to global markets and further ramping up for assembly and integration of complete UAVs.

The announcement said Adani Elbit will offer the Hermes 900 UAV for Indian Tri-Services; an advanced, battle-proven, cost effective MALE UAV for use in all types of terrain.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to the US was in the above backdrop. Few days before Modi’s visit, media reported on June 15, 2023, that the DAC headed by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had approved the procurement of around 31 armed Sea Guardian drones (15 for Navy and rest divided between the Army and Air Force) at an estimated cost of around $3 billion to include maintenance, overhaul and repair (MRO).

This was surprising on a number of counts. First, the US Congress had approved the export of the armed Sea Guardian drones to India a few years back but the same Indian government had put the proposal on hold for valid reasons.

Second, the Adani Elbit venture to manufacture Hermes 900 is already underway. The drone has an endurance of up to 30 hours and features over-the-horizon, persistent multi-mission capabilities with a payload carrying capacity of 450 kg and maximum ceiling of 30,000 feet.

Third, the US proposal did not allow manufacturing the Sea Guardian drones under ‘Make in India’, in complete contrast to the Indian policy to further Atmanirbhar in Defence and cheaper procurement. The Joint Statement from the US and India issued by the White House on June 22, 2023 confirms that the MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones will be “assembled” in India and General Atomics will also establish a MRO facility in India.

It is obvious that this sudden decision to import the MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones was under intense US pressure. The US administration possibly conveyed the following to India: Joe Biden is seeking re-election as President and wants something concrete to indicate closer India-US cooperation; Modi’s visit will rally the Indian Diaspora in the US but they remain divided and a stronger signal needs to be sent to them; the GE-HAL Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on transfer of technology (ToT) is not enough by itself especially with the realisation that GE will NOT transfer technology of critical components like crystal blades and the like, and; India importing the armed MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones will also help Modi and his party in India’s Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

The US is showing scant regard to the inflation and downfall of European economies caused by America’s war on Russia using Ukraine as its proxy. In the single-minded pursuit to further own national interests, the US has demonstrated no difference in equally sacrificing friends and foes.

It is, therefore, quite possible that the US has been pressuring Israel to go slow on the Adani Elbit Hermes 900 venture on the pretext of supporting Israel against Palestine and occupation of the West Bank. There is also speculation that America has been nudging Taiwan to go-slow in assisting India in setting up factories and training talent for fabs, in order to keep India captive on US technology.

The MQ9 Sea Guardian deal is anyway done and dusted. With elections getting even closer when Biden comes here to attend the G20 Summit in September, more action can be expected, not his appendage Volodymyr Zelensky addressing the forum virtually. Indian governments tend to go overboard with US presidents, be it Obama, Trump, Biden or whoever.

Now when Obama publicly says India may pull apart over minority rights, politicians like Himanta Biswas Samra are responding in dirty language to earn brownie points for themselves. In light of what Obama says, does addressing the US Congress to justify India make any difference?

The billion dollar question that every Indian government has failed to answer is when we have the best brains in the world despite the brain drain, why don’t we focus on independent research and come up with our own solutions which would take a couple of thousands or lakhs of crores, especially now when we talking of $5-10 trillion economy?

Why can’t we get our act together? Is this by design or default although the majority think it is by design?

Lt General PRAKASH KATOCH is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.